Variance

I haven't played poker for over two weeks. Following my all-nighter at Morango with Kid, I decided to take two weeks off. Not because I was running bad or playing poorly. On the contrary, I feel I have been playing very well. And I have not had a losing streak recently...just an occassional, small loss.

But I have been thinking about the possibility that I have been playing too loose or fast or open. By that, I me to say I may have allowed some leaks and tells to creep into my game. So I figured it would be a good idea to step away for a bit and come back with a fresh perspective. I needed to straighten out some other stuff in my life anyway. Then I would be able to focus on Poker.

The end of the planned fortnight respite was last Monday. But, of course, fate can be like any of my ex-girlfriends...a bitch. I ended up scheduled for a training class at work all week that started at 9am each day. This impedes my normal flexibility of going in to work at my own pace. So playing cards until midnight or later was out. I'd have to stay home and get to sleep at a normal hour if I was going to make it to class on time.

That is what I have done. No poker. Just work(class). This sucks. But, wait! I've strayed from my intended topic...my poker game.

My plan unpon returning to action was an experiment. I would go to Commerce and play 5-10 NLH for five straight days (Mon - Fri). I know this will be difficult simply because I don't like making that drive all the time. And I probably won't want to be around all the Man-Ass for so much time without a day or two break to rid myself of the mental stench.

Fortunately, it seems the extra time away from the game has provided more time to think about it. And just the other day I recalled a concept that had slipped my mind: Variance. (It is a generally accepted theory so I wouldn't add it to my list of Truths). Variance is key to long-term success when employing gaming theory. While I do look at my game as a collection of sessions over a long period, I have been falling short of applying it to the individual sessions. As of late, they have only been around 4 hours each. I think an individual session should be nearing 7 hours or more to lower the average effect of luck and increase the net effect of skill.

So going to the card room each weeknight after work wouldn't be a perfect experiment anyway. I would only get 4 hours of table time in on average. But I still intend to try it. Next week might not be good because work will likely kick my ass as I recover from a week away from the office for training. Then I'll be in Maui for a week (but I aint complainin' bout that). It may be several weeks before I can devote a significant amount of time to poker.

I will, however, get out and play a serious session or two within the next few days. I might even head up to Chumash this weekend. What say you, Kid?

SEEYa